E-15ers:
It now begins in earnest!! Each year we closely track water flows on Rock
Creek, located literally in our Headquarters' backyard, to map out and
prognosticate our Extravaganza's rivers' water levels and, ergo, our fishing
fortunes. As you can see from the attached chart (which we will now update
and distribute to you on a weekly or more frequent basis), water levels have
varied "all over the map" from year to year, all the way from the high water
levels of 2011 and last year (where the water levels were so high and river
flows so dangerous that I chartered a bus to trek us over the Continental
Divide to fish the [relatively] calmer waters of the Missouri River) to the
very low years of 2007 (the fire year for us) and 2013.
The federal government has established flow meters along all of western
Montana's meters and this data is the source of our charting. Water flow is
measured in "cubic feet per second" (i.e., the actual volume of water
passing downstream in a second), or "cfs", and that is the baseline of our
flow chart. Today, Rock Creek is flowing at 892 cubic feet per second and,
as ambient temperatures increase, the snow in the upper climes will begin to
melt and you will resultantly see this flow dramatically increase as the
snowpack melts and then traverses itself downstream first into rivulets,
then into creeks and then into our rivers, not only increasing the flowage
but also clouding the water with the silt that accompanies each year's
runoff. The runoff process is an important one, as a good, healthy runoff
literally cleans out the streams of a year of accumulate diterous, relocates
the fish from their otherwise comfortable (and hard to fish) hidey-holes,
and provides the clean water that, with its increasing temperatures,
activates the bug life that paves the way for our fishing fortunes.
As I mentioned to you in a prior email, we have already had a 2015
"mini-runoff" with an unusually warm Montana March and April such that the
current snow water equivalent in the Bitterroot River Basin (our targeted
E-15 waters) is currently at 68% of twenty year averages, with year-to-date
precipitation being at 102% of twenty year norms. As I discussed this with
our Double Up Outfitter and our Montana Matters Troubadour, and nursery
owner, Shane Clouse, while fishing with them last year, the early push has
now filled up the underground aquifers such that the resulting and remaining
runoff will go 100% into our fishing rivers, providing fresh, warmer and
bug-friendly conditions when we arrive mid-June.
In a word, things are setting themselves up perfectly for Extravaganza 2015
with the huge caveat that, as reflected on the wild variations in water
flows from year to year, Mother Nature will reveal herself when she is ready
with the final verdict for 2015. To that end, historically, May and June
are the wettest months of a Montana year and we therefor assume nothing,
watch closely and know, at least at this point in time, that things are
lining up wonderfully for us.
Watch the 2015 redline evolve as time goes on and you will get a good
glimpse into just what is in store for us. Ideally, come mid-June, water
flows in Rock Creek will be right around 1500 cfs, with the bell curve black
line of 2009 as our desired runoff path. Our flow chart will be posted
later today to our blogsite, which should now be marked among your
Favorites, on which is also a weather button so that you can see what the
weather folks are guestimating for upcoming ambient temperatures (noting
that being a Montana weather person is the among the safest jobs in the
world, as you can be wrong almost all of the time and not get fired!).
It begins, folks, it begins!!!
Best to all on the cusp of it all,
Rock Creek Ron
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